Though by that time, it'll likely be too late. The imminent death of Numbukalla, once a treasured SL sim, is just one of many such blows in the next 2-3 years, barring a dramatic strategy shift, expect many more to come, until the utter direness of Second Life's situation will be undeniable to all.
There are simply not enough people in the real world willing to pay hundreds of dollars a month for virtual land, and those who do now will slowly but inevitably leave for many and various reasons, making Second Life a candidate for lingering death from a thousand cuts. Virtual worlds the size and scope of Second Life need millions in annual revenue to survive, but Second Life's existing revenue model, while currently successful, is not sustainable into the medium or long term. Because, once again, here is the harsh reality: Some changes will likely meet even more resistance by Residents (certainly the most vocal ones.) The resistance may be so great, the Lindens may back away from the changes they had planned at the last minute, even if it means losing another opportunity to grow the user base, and thereby save Second Life.īut not all change is bad, especially if it's needed to insure the community can go on. Humble’s experience with The Sims franchise, at Electronic Arts, we are likely to see Second Life become more gamelike, become more appealing to “the riffraff”, as one community member once referred to the mainstream. This despite the fact that the largest, mass market 3D games also have a point-and-click avatar movement option.Īnd so on, and on - many more examples of this dynamic abound. well, again, read the reactive rancor here. When I suggested that Second Life should have a point-and-click avatar movement option - again, an option - and Rod Humble agreed with me on that point.This despite the fact that Facebook now accounts for more than 25% of all web pageviews, which means Linden Lab not having a Facebook promotion strategy for Second Life would be tantamount to ignoring Google. When I reported that Linden Lab describes Facebook as the best option to share Second Life content - an option, mind you - well, you can read the overwhelming reader rage that provoked.Take just a couple examples from recent weeks: Outside analysts have made a similar observation: Forester Research's Tom Grant, for example, suggested Linden Lab suffers from an Iron Law of Oligarchy of "their best customers are, in subtle ways, holding them back."īut more changes are coming, and so will more resistance. I believe that resistance is among the many reasons for their collective departure - a sense that the community they have worked so hard to foster and support resents or dismisses their efforts. Most other Lindens have followed them out the door, and many Lindens have since spoken to me about their frustration (almost aways tinged with affection) with Second Life's userbase, and its resistance to change. Second Life community management founder Robin Harper now works at a company that makes Facebook games. Second Life co-founder Cory Ondrejka now works at Facebook. Then again, Philip has all but left Linden Lab, as have nearly all the founding Lindens, even though they once spoke and advocated for Second Life so passionately. changes are sometimes going to be disruptive and painful.” One only expects pain, when one expects resistance. After all, he once warned SL's most dedicated users, “Try not to cling too tightly to what we have now. I even suspect this is what Second Life's very founder, Philip Rosedale, believes. However, I can say for certain that many Lindens past and present share my opinion about Resident resistance to change.
Humble shares my belief that Second Life’s community resists and fears changing Second Life, even to save it from its current trajectory, which inevitably ends in oblivion.
Recently I mentioned talking with newly appointed Linden Lab CEO Rod Humble about “the recalcitrance of Second Life's existing userbase to change.” To be clear, I do not know if Mr.
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